Here's everything you need to know about The Sentry 鈥?our expert picks and mega guide for the PGA Tour's first event of 2024.
Something just feels right about the festivities at Kapalua not only kicking off the calendar year in professional golf, but also the PGA Tour season itself, as the Tour finally starts with a blank slate instead of a trail of breadcrumbs from the fall portion of the erstwhile wraparound.
It also feels right that we鈥檝e lost the 鈥淭ournament of Champions鈥?from The Sentry's title. It was a bit awkward a few years ago when more players were allowed into the field after the COVID-shortened season, then Harris English won the title, despite literally not being a champion from the previous year.
All of that said, there was a time not long ago when holding a professional golf tournament just a few miles down the road from Lahaina would鈥檝e been considered heartless after wildfires led to a death toll in the triple-digits, billions of dollars in damages and the destruction of one of the world鈥檚 truly beautiful locations.
That the tourney remained here, though, should be a testament to those who worked to keep it in the face of such adversity, and I鈥檇 imagine that a charitable undercurrent to the week will be front and center 鈥?doing more good than we might鈥檝e thought possible a few months ago.
Now labeled a signature event on the PGA Tour schedule, The Sentry is one of eight such signature tournaments where a limited field actually means adding more players to the mix, which is why there will be a record 59 golfers teeing it up this week.
That does not, however, include the reigning champion, as The Sentry is one of three events in the first seven that was claimed by Jon Rahm, who of course left the PGA Tour to join LIV Golf last month.
Some will argue that without Rahm, something is missing, as a tourney without its superstar champion defending the title feels a bit empty. Others will contend that the show must go on, pointing out that plenty of big names, from Tiger Woods to Phil Mickelson to Rory McIlroy, have routinely skipped this one over the years.
I know social media doesn鈥檛 approve of riding fences, but you鈥檙e both right.
We can pine for Rahm鈥檚 name on the leaderboard this week while simultaneously understanding that there are enough stars to make us forget about him by week鈥檚 end.
Before we get to the picks, a few reminders about what we鈥檒l see this week. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is an unconventional par-73 with three par-3s and four par-5s.
Anyone with designs on winning will also have to go ultra low, as only once in the last nine years has a winner failed to post at least 20-under, and if the trade winds don鈥檛 blow at all, it could be much lower, as we saw the top three players on the board post a combined 99-under just two years ago.
This is also the event where we say each year that the trick might be picking those who have been grinding on the practice range over the holidays versus those who have kept busy polishing off some Christmas cookies. Good luck trying to identify who鈥檚 who as we get into the selections for the season opener, starting with a player who surprised some by sticking around.
2024 The Sentry PicksOutright Winner (Short odds)One player to win the tournament
Tony Finau (+3300)
Amid rampant rumors that he already had one foot out the door to LIV Golf, Tony Finau announced last month that he would not be entering the transfer portal while going full Wolf of Wall Street mode. 鈥淵ou know what? I鈥檓 not leaving. I鈥檓 not f鈥攊ng leaving! The show goes on! This is my home. They鈥檙e gonna need a f鈥攊ng wrecking ball to take me out of here.鈥?/p>
(Okay, so Big Tone left out the naughty words, but you get the point.)
As much as I love a good narrative selection, though, this one is about more than the romantic notion of a player staying loyal to the PGA Tour and immediately reaping the benefits.
First things first: As will become a growing pattern in the not-so-brave new world of more short-field events, I鈥檒l gladly fade the top of the board at exceedingly shorter prices. If Scottie Scheffler at +600 or Viktor Hovland at +800 wins this week 鈥?and they certainly could 鈥?I鈥檓 sure there will be plenty of bettors gloating about having them on their card, but I won鈥檛 be one of 鈥榚m, unless a slow start offers some live value.
In a 59-player field, opting for those in the next tier at a much more palatable number makes better sense 鈥?and should be a strategy that repeats over the next eight months.
As for why to take Finau over those with similar odds, I like that he owns two previous top-10 finishes (in four career starts) at this event, including a T7 last year. Plus, he was T4 at the 20-man Hero World Challenge at the beginning of December, which suggests a semblance of form entering a week when there aren鈥檛 too many obvious suggestions.
While the status quo narrative doesn鈥檛 sway me too much, the not-so-indirect impact of having the weight of that decision lifted from his shoulders should only help.
Outright Winner (Long odds)One player to win the tournament
Corey Conners (+7500)
I鈥檓 going to warn you right now: You鈥檙e going to see Corey Conners鈥?name in my weekly previews an awful lot this year. I鈥檒l expound on exactly what I like about the Canadian in my annual column on players making The Leap, which can be found this week, but it鈥檚 no secret what we鈥檝e come to expect from the two-time winner in recent years.
Last season, Conners impressed as he ranked 11th in SG: Off the Tee and 21st on Approach, but he also was just 135th Around the Green and 128th Putting; the previous season, he was fifth Off the Tee and 16th on Approaches, yet 131st around the greens and 136th聽on them; and the season before that, he went eighth, ninth, 169th and 112th in those categories.
Perhaps it鈥檚 too pie-in-the-sky thinking to believe Conners will suddenly figure out his wedges and putter, but I do think that a world-class ball-striker competing in more limited fields should take better advantage of a few spike weeks with those clubs and find the winner鈥檚 circle at something bigger than the Valero Texas Open.
His track record at Kapalua isn鈥檛 anything special, but at this number I鈥檓 willing to swing and miss on Conners in a few signature events if it eventually means hitting one out of the park.
Other OADersPotential selections for one-and-done pools
Xander Schauffele (+1600)
This is the part in my annual Sentry previews where I outline the two distinct options available for One and Done pools. (Shameless self-promotion: I鈥檒l be posting my annual piece on OAD possibilities for every tournament before the first one begins this week.)
You can either choose a superstar, knowing his win equity is greater in a shortened field and hoping to start off the year with a bang, or you can take a lower-owned player further down the list, knowing that this one comes with no cut and a guaranteed paycheck.
Of course, as I鈥檝e outlined already, this scenario is hardly unique to The Sentry anymore. There are going to be more of these limited-field events, but the schedule will also consolidate the best of the best playing against each other more often, which perhaps suggests we鈥檇 be smarter to simply chase that heightened win equity and select the bigger names at these tournaments.
I鈥檓 not sure we can refer to Xander Schauffele as the King of Limited Fields anymore, but he鈥檚 certainly made his mark at this one, with a win, a runner-up and another top-five finish in six career starts. I鈥檇 expect him to be a popular OAD play 鈥?and if his number stays at 16/1, he also makes sense as an outright selection.
Sungjae Im (+3000)
As more players leave for LIV Golf, the door should be open for those who stayed to find greater success. That isn鈥檛 to suggest that Sungjae Im wasn鈥檛 already a big-time player, but for a guy with two wins and five runner-up finishes, the exodus could mean one fewer competitor finishing in front of him, which in turn could lead to more wins and better status and all the spoils that come with such results.
At this event, he鈥檚 never finished worse than 13th and has a top-five finish on his resume. For those who are teetering between using a superstar and going more down the list, Im could represent a nice compromise.
Camilo Villegas (+15000)
It鈥檚 been a long December, but there鈥檚 reason to believe that this year could be better than the last for Camilo Villegas. When last we saw him, he was busy dominating for a few weeks during the fall portion of the schedule, and while form can thaw quickly during the holidays, a return to Kapalua for the first time in almost a decade should be enough to keep those embers burning.
Even if you don鈥檛 love him for OADs, he could be a solid top-10/20 or DFS play.
Placement Market BetsTop FiveOne player to finish in the top five
Russell Henley (+750 for Top-five Finish)
If I can list Corey Conners for an outright, then I can similarly list his brother-in-ball-striking Russell Henley for a top-five finish. Once again, I鈥檓 willing to take a chance that a player who hits a ton of fairways and is long enough off the tee can somehow turn his putter into a magic wand for the week.
He鈥檚 only finished better than 17th in one of his four previous starts here, but that was a T3 that proved he can indeed play his best golf here.
Top 10One player to finish in the top 10
Sahith Theegala (+425 for Top-10 Finish)
No, I didn鈥檛 list Sahith Theegala for an outright play above, and yes, this section is all about his opportunity to cash top-10 tickets, but I鈥檓 still going to mention that I thought his days of being a 75/1 outright were over, so grab it while you can.
That鈥檚 a massive number for a player who 鈥渇inally鈥?won this past fall and should enter the new season brimming with confidence.
A top-10 finish this week means only being in the top 17 percent of the field, which suggests there鈥檚 some nice value on Theegala.
Top 20One player to finish in the top 20
Adam Schenk (+240 for Top-20 Finish)
Once again, another theme for the signature events, not just this week: Unless you like really short prices, you鈥檒l have to look down the board for top-20 plays in these limited fields. Adam Schenk came dangerously close to winning on a few occasions last season and has shown he鈥檚 not afraid to compete with the big boys.
With a Masters invitation already in his back pocket and on the verge of riding the rich-get-richer wave in coming months, expect him to continue becoming more accustomed to not only playing in these fields 鈥?but contending.
DFS PicksDFS Free Bingo SquareA safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups
Scottie Scheffler (DK $11,000)
While I can鈥檛 get too excited about Scottie Scheffler at 6/1 odds to win outright, he makes a ton of sense at the top of DFS lineups, with plenty of strong low-cost options in a field essentially devoid of the so-called 鈥渟crubs鈥?(don鈥檛 shoot the messenger!) in the $6,000 salary spots.
Not only does Scheffler own one of the highest ceilings in the professional game, but his floor also remains unmatched. It鈥檚 tough to believe he鈥檒l finish much worse than his T7 from a year ago.
DFS Mid-TierA medium-priced option for DFS lineups
Ludvig Aberg (DK $8,700)
Hey, it鈥檚 been over a month since the last official PGA Tour event, so we鈥檙e all a little out of midseason form. That鈥檚 the only way to explain this one, as Ludvig Aberg is appropriately priced in most books with the third-shortest outright odds in this week鈥檚 field 鈥?yes, he really is that good 鈥?and yet he owns just the 15th-highest salary in DFS on DraftKings.
We can certainly ask 鈥淲hy?鈥?and try to figure out who made the pricing error, but it鈥檚 easier to say 鈥淲hy not?鈥?and just slide him into your lineup without questions.
DFS 鈥楧ogA lower-priced option for DFS lineups
Akshay Bhatia (DK $6,200)
Prior to winning last summer鈥檚 Barracuda Championship, Akshay Bhatia made most of his money on tropical resort courses.
That鈥檚 not to suggest there are many similarities between the host venues in Puerto Rico (where he finished runner-up) and Mexico (where he was solo fourth) and this week at Kapalua, but perhaps it鈥檚 less about the physical characteristics of the courses and more about the laid-back vibe that comes with competing in such an atmosphere.
At just $200 above the minimum, I鈥檒l take a chance on yet another young player who shouldn鈥檛 remain at current prices for much longer.
The Sentry Misc. PicksFirst-Round LeaderOne player to post the low round Thursday
Eric Cole (+5000 for FRL)
Last year, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and J.J. Spaun each held a share of the opening-round lead with matching scores of 9-under 64; two years ago, Rahm, Justin Thomas and Matt Jones set a new single-round scoring record on the weekend, each posting a 12-under 61.
The common denominator here is Rahm, but since we鈥檝e already established that he won鈥檛 be involved at this one for a while, let鈥檚 go with a player who often popped in opening rounds last year while also playing the proverbial role of 鈥渘ot afraid to go low.鈥?/p>
As a rookie, Eric Cole led the PGA Tour in Rounds in the 60s, Below-Par Rounds and Total Birdies. Granted, much of that can be attributed to his insistence at rarely taking a week off, but a rank of 13th in Round 1 scoring average (69.19) should also give us plenty of reason to like him on Thursdays.
Matchup ManOne player who should beat comparable players
Vincent Norrman (+12500)
It鈥檚 often said that we shouldn鈥檛 present a problem without also offering a solution, which largely summarizes how I feel about this category. Since I usually write these words on Sunday night/Monday morning, most books haven鈥檛 yet released head-to-head matchups. Sure, that makes it difficult to ascertain whom to list here, but I try to offer up a few similarly priced players I鈥檇 play my selection against.
In the case of Norrman 鈥?who鈥檚 helping my theme of undervalued youngsters 鈥?I鈥檇 play him against Byeong Hun An (coming off a suspension), Tom Hoge (perhaps overpriced after last year鈥檚 T3 finish) and Patrick Rodgers (I honestly had to look up how he even squeezed into this field).
Like his buddy Ludvig Aberg, Norrman also won on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last season, suggesting even bigger and better things coming in this one.
Also Receiving VotesOther players who should provide value
Max Homa (+1400), Jordan Spieth (+2500), Rickie Fowler (+3500), Cam Davis (+6600) and Erik Van Rooyen (+12500)
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