The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians open a three-game series at Progressive Field on Tuesday.
Red Sox vs Guardians odds have the Guardians listed as -115 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8. I'll be targeting the moneyline for my Red Sox vs Guardians prediction.
Tanner Houck, who has had a phenomenal start to his 2024 campaign, gets the start for the Red Sox. The 27-year-old righty has limited walks and, as a result, has increased his strikeouts. The pesky Guardians will counter with Ben Lively, who was on the Cincinnati Reds last year and didn't have the most encouraging season. He has always prevented hard contact, but doesn't manufacture many whiffs.
Both bullpens have been stellar thus far, and even though the Red Sox are missing a couple of key bats, betting on the more stable starter is the right call in this pairing.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.Our 5 MLB Best Bets for TuesdayApr 23, 2024 UTCMLB NRFI & YRFI Picks: Tuesday Model PredictionsApr 23, 2024 UTCMets vs. Giants Pick & Prediction (4/23)Apr 23, 2024 UTCBoston Red SoxHouck seems to finally be putting it together on the hill. In the past, he struggled keeping his walk rate below 8%. This year, he is under 2% (!). That afford hims longevity and gives him more of an opportunity to miss bats, which he's doing 26% of the time. Additionally, his ground-ball rate ranks in the 81st percentile, which is important because the Guardians have the second-lowest ground-ball rate in baseball and trail only the Dodgers.
The Red Sox are missing Trevor Story, Triston Casas and Tyler O’Neill, so Rafael Devers will be doing in the heavy lifting in the power department. The Red Sox still have five bats with an xwOBA over .315 off of righties this season and that should be enough as Lively has never blown the ball by hitters. The Red Sox are striking out more than 24% of the time off of righties this year, but Lively doesn't miss many bats, so that shouldn't be a concern in this matchup.
The Red Sox bullpen has been elite, throwing 91 innings with a 23.8% strikeout rate. They also have a 3.60 xFIP.
Cleveland GuardiansLively struck out seven when he matched up with the Red Sox last week, but also gave up a homer. In 2023, Lively held a 5.03 xERA with an Average Exit Velocity over 89 mph.
The Guardians have a 105 wRC+ off of righties and don't strike out often. Cleveland has six hitters with a xwOBA over .315 against right handers and is led offensively by Josh Naylor. Meanwhile, José Ramírez has been slumping, which limits how much power this lineup has on a game-to-game basis.
In relief, the Guardians are solid. They have an xFIP of 3.34 and strike out plenty, but also have a walk rate nearing 10%. That could bite them against Boston's patient hitters.
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Red Sox vs. GuardiansBetting Pick & Prediction
Houck is clearly the better starting pitcher in this game and the lineups are comparable, despite the Red Sox having a few key hitters on the Injured List. Both teams have excellent bullpens, but if Boston limits walks, it'll have a leg up. The Red Sox should be a slight favorite in this game, play them to -125.
Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline | Play to -125