I have one NBA pick today for the 76ers vs. Heat Play-In game on Wednesday night. Check out my top bet for the 76ers vs. Heat total below.
NBA Pick Today: Expert Bet for 76ers vs. HeatGameTime (ET)Pick7 p.m. ETOver 208Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.76ers vs. HeatWednesday, April 177 p.m. ETESPNOver 208When you have a player like Joel Embiid who averages 34.7 points and 5.6 assists on 53/39/88 shooting splits, he’s obviously going to have a massive effect on your team’s offensive output.
Unsurprisingly, the 76ers’ per-game scoring average jumps from 109.1 when Embiid sits to 120.7 when he plays — a difference of 11.6 points per game.
Of course, Embiid is also crucial on the defensive end, but the drop-off isn’t as stark with Philadelphia allowing 112.7 points when he sits compared to 110.1 when he plays — a difference of 2.6 points.
Overall, 76ers games average 221.8 points when the reigning MVP sits but 230.8 points when he plays.
The Sixers shouldn’t be expected to combine for 230-plus points with a Heat team that plays with the league’s second-slowest pace (96.4) and averages a combined total of 218.5. But the odds are in favor of them getting over a total that has hovered in the 208-209 range for tonight’s play-in game.
With Duncan Robinson (back) listed as probable, the Heat should be at full strength save for Terry Rozier (neck).
Per our Action Labs data, when a total is 16 points below the NBA average (228.4 in 2023-24) with the home team favored by more than one possession and facing an unprofitable over team (Miami is 35-47), the over is 77-28-3 (73%) since 2016, including 28-9 (76%) this season.
Pick: Over 208 (Play to 210.5)
